HOW TO AVOID FAKE BREAK-OUTS AND TRAPS

HOW TO AVOID FAKE BREAK-OUTS AND TRAPS

 

내가 가장 많이 받는 질문들

1. 가짜 돌파를 피하는 법

2. 불 트랩이나 베어 트랩을 피하는 법

3. 컨펌을 얻는 법

 

Answer. You can't most of the times

And if you could? Do you really need to?

 

Example of Fake-out below.

This is where everyone losses

 

Now let's take a step back and assume we were ONLY TRADING the ranges.

 

The triangle below which is an abvious pattern provides for 7 EXTREMLY profitable entries.

 

Even if the strategy was just to buy and sell the Support Resistance, these are 7 solid entries.

What about the Fake out?

You would have lost all your money there, right? You got trapped by a fake-breakout.

 

Well, remember.

1. The Market makers can and will trap you.

2. Fake-outs and Traps WILL occur, your aim is to survive when it occurs.

 

Question is, HOW?

1. You NEED to know when the trade goes wrong.

2. EXIT when it goes wrong i.e. the invalidation is hit

3. KNOW that it was a trap. Take the loss and move on.

 

People LOSE money on traps ONLY when they don't exit on invalidation.

 

Having a plan when the plan fails is the need.

Observation.

1. IF the marker gives so many obvious trades, why should one bad trade ruin everything?

2. Fake-outs will be an outlier event and one unpredictable event shouldn't ruin you capital.

3. If you have a fixed invalidation and SL, it doesn't matter if you get trapped.

 

The above example of trade the range in also valid in any kind of RANGE and PATTERN.

 

Example of just trading the ranges in horizontal levels.

 

Let's imagine you get trapped in 2 fake movements here, you STILL get 4 Solid R:R entries.

 

Why should 2 bad entries spoil everything?

 

Having said the above, the earlier triangle break-out was a fake one which could have been easily predicted.

 

1. Volume on break-out was low.

2. The Open interest was going up as the price went down.

3. Open interest decreasing on the break-down.

Conclusion.

 

당신은 트랩에 걸릴 것이다. 세계 최고의 트레이더 역시 트랩에 걸린다. 목표는 트랩에 걸렸을 때 살아남는 것이고 그건 쉽다.

 

시장에는 트랩보다는 쉬운 트레이딩 엔트리가 훨씬 많다.

 

1. 당신의 무효화 레벨을 가져라.

2. 계획과 반대로 가려는 첫번째 신호에 매매를 종료하라.

   채널의 끝에서 매매하라 어떤 타임 프레임에서도 채널 중간에서 매매하지 마라.

3. Common sense is if there are more predictable trades, then one trap should destroy you.

 

위의 쓰레드가 도움이 됬으면 좋겠다.

위의 팁들은 어떤 타임 프레임에서도 적용이 된다는 사실을 기억해라.너의 무효화 레벨을 꼭 갖고 매매하라.

 

 

출처: https://twitter.com/EmperorBTC/status/1401219712063729666